According to a report by United Nations, India will be concentration with the largest population in world by 2047. The population growth is linked with overall economic, social, and political advancements of future. Its high time to understand the role of population. If we talk about the Etymology (science of the origin of any word):
- Demography (greek)= Demos (people) + Graphein (describe)
- Systemic study of population (composition, patterns, structure)
- Economic development and population growth (-ve relation)
We can calculate demography in many different ways:
- Formal- quantitative analysis (deals with numbers) and qualitative analysis (deals with type of population)
- Social- It deals with economic, political aspects of population with a wider view.
This data can be used in planning and implementation of state policies, and also to plan economic welfare of weaker section. One can study population growth in many ways, here we will discuss the “Theory of Thomas Robert Malthus” who was a English Political Economist. He had discussed his theory in an essay titled “Essay on Population” in 1798. According to him, the population rises exponentially i.e. 2, 4, 6, 8, 16, 32, … and so on, however, the agriculture production rises arithmetically i.e. 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, … and so on. By this concluded that the humanity will always live in poverty and starvation.
According to him, we need to control the population by adopting some practices like: postpone marriages, sexual abstinence, and celibacy. He also adds that Famine is a natural and inevitable way to control the population growth.
Although, others says that the real cause of poverty is unequal distribution of resources. Which could be corrected by economic advancement, green revolution, technical growth and disease control etc.
Theory of Demographic transition
Every population growth can be studied under some transition stages; which could help us predict the future growth patterns. The growth follows the older pattern and the technological development of area, and follows a cycle called demographic cycle. The transition theory divided the population growth in three stages:
Stage 1- Pre-Transition
The population has high birth rate with low literacy rate, less development of technologies, and the most societies seems to be indulge in agriculture. This period also have high death rates due to high frequency of epidemics and variable food supply with no storage technology available.
Stage 2- Transitional
Here, the population has high birth rate in beginning which show visible decline with time. It shows increasing literacy rate, growing development of technologies, and diversification in economic sector, still the most societies seems to be indulge in agriculture. This period also have declining death rates due to improve in sanitation and health conditions.
Stage 3- Post transitional
The conditions are now improving as now is the time we can see nearly equal birth and death rates. The population is increasing itself to high technical knowledge, and also focused towards family planning. An aware population leads towards stable and low population growth.
There are several factors which influence the distribution of population:
- Historical factors: Historical importance of place
- Geographical feature– water availability, Flat plain, gentle slope, Moderate climate, fertile soil, etc.
- Economic Factors- mineral presence, urbanization, industrialization, etc.
- Social and cultural factors– religious and cultural significance
To calculate the population, government count everyone every tenth year, and the process called census. First such census was done in 1872. Indian population is in the later phase of second transition stage of population. Government has taken many population control missions “Parivar Vikas Mission” to increase access to contraceptives and family planning services in 146 districts with high fertility rates.
There is visible investment in generation of sufficient employment, health care sector, to skill workforce, education sector, and also to women empowerment.